Tollemache 2014

A better Dorset performance this year, finishing 5th out of 9 teams in our group - mid-table respectability rather than our usual position near the bottom of the pile.

Ann and I had our ups and downs, especially a set of 7 boards against Berks and Bucks where we managed to let through four game contracts, with two gratuitous errors and two unlucky (meaning ill-judged) opening leads. Here are two more hands where we could have done better.

West led a spade and declarer ruffed and made what looked like the normal play of a top trump. West showed out and although the heart finesse worked, the contract could no longer be made when hearts broke 4-1.

It is better to play the ace of clubs and ruff a club before playing a trump. Even then, the winning line is not obvious - click on Next to follow the play.

This was a simple bidding problem. Should I protect when a weak 2 spades is passed round to me?

At the table I passed and conceded 110 after a misdefence. Even against best defence, we were only getting +50, poor compensation for the +600 that was available in 3NT and made at both the opposing tables, when the full hand was

At the table I thought that I was a bit too weak to bid 2NT, and that partner would expect a stronger hand and often raise me to a no-play 3NT. Was that too wimpish or was I just unlucky? To find out I ran a computer simulation of the hand. Out of 20 deals, you could make 3NT on nine. When partner was weak you were often in a hopeless 2NT or 3NT, sometimes doubled for -500 or -800, but on balance it was probably right to bid.

Silver Plate

Our luck finally ran out in another tight match against a team from Sussex, when we lost by 5 imp. After a close loss there are numerous hands where all of us could have done something different and reversed the result, but the potential for the largest swing was on this hand where we lost 9 imp but might have gained 8.

I can see three ways to bid the West hand, given that the auction will be at the 4 level for your second bid.
(1) Bid 2♦ and then 5♣
(2) bid 2NT and pass
(3) bid 2NT and then double to show extra values.

Nothing is ideal. The first option is a bit too unilateral for my taste, the second is rather feeble on a 4-loser hand, and the third may give partner a choice of losing options (as here).

At our table Ann chose the first option and ended in 5♦ doubled. The opponents started with a heart and then South mysteriously playing three rounds of spades, so that Ann escaped for -300. A heart continuation would be a much stronger defence; declarer can escape for 3 down by playing just one round of trumps and switching to clubs, but is likely to lose control and go for 800.

In the other room West bid 2NT and left South to declare 4♥.  West cashed two clubs and then switched to a diamond.  The play is not easy as at least one of the major suits is going to break badly. At the table declarer started with two top hearts. This would have worked if West held a singleton spade and a doubleton heart, as declarer can now cash ♠A, ruff a club and lead a spade towards the K 9. When the trumps were unkind, he could still have succeeded by playing West for ♠10 x, but he tried to drop a doubleton queen and went one down.

The winning line is to run the ♥10 at trick 4, leading to an easy make (and an overtrick if you guess spades).

Is it being wise after the event to suggest that it is right to run the ♥10? We know that West has at least 10 cards in the minors and can assume that East has at least 5. (If he has fewer, West has at least 12 cards in the minors and would surely bid again.) In that case the odds on the major suit distributions are
          3-2      6%
          2-3      36%
          1-4      46%
          0-5      12%
A big difference from the a priori numbers! So cashing two top hearts has a 36% chance for the 2-3 break, plus about 9% for a singleton J, a total of 45%. 

What about the finesse for  ♥J? West has 3 'vacant spaces' and East has 8, so the chance of the finesse is 8/11 or about 73%. You probably wont be making if the trumps are 5-0, but that still leaves over 60%.

Is it possible to work this out in the heat of battle? Maybe. The vacant spaces calculation is easy enough so I think that you could estimate that the finesse is about 70%. The calculation of suit distributions is much more complicated (I used an Excel spreadsheet) but I think you should realise that bad breaks are much more likely after a 2-suited overcall, so that the finesse is a better play.

Silver Plate

We have been leading a bit of a charmed life in the Silver Plate. In the round of 32, our captain was prepared to concede with 8 boards to go, but we persuaded him to play on and turned round a deficit of over 30 imps. In the round of 16 against the Smiths from Bristol, our luck seemed to have turned - the opponents had a bidding mix-up to finish in 6♦ on a 4-3 fit which had about a 9% chance but was unbeatable as the cards lay. Then Ann and I bit to 5♦, which needed a trump suit of A J x x opposite  9 x x x x to play for one loser - about a 52% chance. The trumps were 4-0 offside and I was doubled for 500. All this meant we were 24 imps down after 8 boards.

We clawed the deficit back over the next two sets. This was a lucky gain where I got away with an inferior play.

West led what looked like a 4th highest spade to East's jack, and the defence then played a spade back to the ace and a third round to dummy's king. I ran the hearts and when nothing much happened in the discards, tried a diamond to the 9. This drew East's king and I had nine tricks.

That was not the best line. In dummy at trick 4, I should have run the ♦Q. If this lost to the king, I could take a diamond finesse when in dummy with ♥Q.

In the final set things were not going well at our table. Ann's 4♥ opening was doubled for 1100, we went down in 3NT after wrongsiding the contract, and the opponents made two close games. We had indeed conceded two game swings, but the minus 1100 was worth 14 imp after a triumph from Chris.

In our room the auction started in the same way but South passed the double. Chris was more ambitious, and justified his bidding with accurate play - ruff the opening lead, a trump to the king and then a finesse of the jack, four rounds of spades ruffing the last in dummy, ruff a heart to hand, draw the last trump and pick up the clubs.

A few small gains meant that we were 4 imp behind with two boards to play. This was the decisive hand.

In the other room Chris and Barrie ended in the best contract of 4♠ after West had overcalled 2♥. How do you play after a heart lead? I think the best line is to draw three rounds of trumps, then a diamond to the ace and run the queen, throwing a heart if West doesn't cover. This ensures the contract on a 3-3 trump break and will make most of the time on a 4-2 break. It's much easier to see this after the event, and at the table declarer went down after trying for a heart ruff in dummy.

At our table the opponents finished in an inferior 3NT and Ann led a heart to my queen. The contract is a trivial make if declarer ducks this but for some reason he won the ace. Now he crossed to the ♠A, played a diamond to the queen and cashed the ace, on which Ann threw a spade. Unwilling to believe that the spades were 3-3 (maybe Ann's Smith peter confused him?), he then tried a low club from hand, but Ann was able to win and cash out for three down. Plus 300 gained us 5 imps and after a 2 imp gain on the last board we had won by 3. Phew!